From Campaigning to Governing

How Obama can capitalize on his ten-million-strong database once in office:

Accordingly, the president-elect’s transition Web site features a blog and a suggestion form, signaling the kinds of direct and instantaneous interaction that the Obama administration will encourage, perhaps with an eye toward turning its following into the biggest special-interest group in Washington.

Once Obama is sworn in, those backers may be summoned to push reluctant members of Congress to support legislation, to offer feedback on initiatives and to enlist in administration-supported causes in local communities. Obama would also be positioned to ask his supporters to back his favored candidates with fundraising and turnout support in the 2010 midterm elections.

Another perspective from the International Herald Tribune:

Valerie Jarrett For Senate?

That’s Obama’s preference:

A prominent Democratic source close to Obama said Jarrett is also Obama’s choice to be named to take over his seat in the Senate, though Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich would have the final say over a replacement.

Jarrett, a personal and political friend of Obama, currently co-chairs the transition team.

Digging Through the Exit Polls

Expanding the Electorate: Among the 13% of the electorate that did not vote in 2004, Obama won 71-27, which multiplies out to a 5.72% lead – 87% of his national margin.  Essentially, he built his landslide by rooting out new and sporadic voters.

Party Defection: For all the hubbub about PUMA, perhaps the most over-hyped story of the cycle, Obama captured 89% of Democrats – the same performance as Kerry and Gore.  Clinton Democrats went 83-16 for Obama.

Regional Republicans: Obama swept the Northeast (+19), the West (+17), and the Midwest (+10); McCain won only the South (+9).  On a related note, the Republicans now have zero representatives from New England and are outnumbered everywhere else except in the South.

Battle of the Veeps: 66% said Biden was qualified to be president; only 38% said the same about Palin.  Among those doubting Palin’s qualifications, Obama won 82-16.

“Has He Ever Waved That Little Stubby Thing At You?”

Obama roasts Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel at a 2005 charity dinner:

Gauging the Ground Game

Nate Silver calculates the impact by digging through the exit polls:

Roughly speaking, each marginal 10-point advantage in contact rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote in that state. So the rule of thumb that a “good” ground game may be worth additional 2-3 points above and beyond what is reflected in the polls appears to hold; a great ground game may be worth somewhat more than that.

Issues With Sarah Palin

After championing the ilk of Joe the Plumber, after chest-thumping paeans to populism, after chastising Obama’s tax plan as a fifty-pound dumbbell on the American Dream, Sarah Palin sprang nearly $200,000 on her family’s wardrobe, or, four times the median household income.

After stoking crowds with McCarthy-esque invective against Obama, she led to what the Secret Service reported as a “sharp and disturbing increase in threats” toward the now President-Elect.

After chiding by the media, she claimed a violation of her First Amendment rights.

After returning to Alaska, she criticized the other forty-nine states for not allowing equal opportunities and equal treatment.

After supporting the Bridge to Nowhere, she opposed it.  After fighting for earmarks, she objected to them.  After saying climate change was not man-made, she said it was.

But Brutus is an honorable man.

These grievances do not even touch upon the persistent flight to fiction; for that, Andrew Sullivan has assembled a primer.  These statements are not hyperbolic excess but rather proven falsehoods, where you can stamp Q.E.D. at the end of a rebuttal.

At this point, Governor Palin has a dim future in national politics.  Not because of disgruntled McCain staffers peddling in allegations, but because of self-inflicted wounds (see Couric interview or Gibson interview).  Her meteoric rise has quickly smoldered into the darkness of the Alaskan winter.

Fist Bump

(Via About.com)

The X-Factor

Patrick Ruffini gauges the impact of the youth vote:

Had the Democratic 18-29 vote stayed the same as 2004’s already impressive percentage, Obama would have won by about 2 points, and would not have won 73 electoral votes from Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Indiana. So, to clarify here: Obama’s youth margin = 73 electoral votes.

Which could create a Democratic majority for the next generation.

What Really Happened

Andrew Gelman breaks down the election:

The gap between young and old has increased–a lot.

But there was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)

The Ground Game Divide

Ambinder airs the figures:

At the National Press Club on Wednesday, RNC chairman Mike Duncan crowed about how the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign had contacted 30 million individual voters directly.  (This figure includes those robocalls.)

Impressive.

But the Obama campaign / Democratic National Committee turnout program contacted more than double that amount — about 68 million, according to a Democratic officials.