Obama Wins Democrats Abroad

Obama won 66% of the vote to Hillary’s 33% in the Democrats Abroad primary. Out of the seven delegates at stake (fourteen half-delegates), Obama garnered 2.5 while Hillary picked up 2. The rest will be divvied up at a convention in April.

The results are fun to dig through, even though many countries had only one or two votes cast. Obama won France, 72 percent to 27 percent; Germany, 67 percent to 32 percent; Switzerland, 72 percent to 28 percent; and the UK, 69% to 30%. He won Asia by nearly a 3:1 margin, Europe by 2:1, and the Americas by 5:4.

Meanwhile, Hillary won Israel, 54 percent to 45 percent; the Dominican Republic, 90 percent to 10 percent; and the Phillipines, 55 percent to 45 percent.

Clinton’s Path Ahead

In the wake of Hillary’s Iowa third-place finish and polls out of New Hampshire indicating impending defeat, several campaign staffers had lobbied for an early exit, in an effort to preserve her reputation for either another presidential run or a bid to become Senate Majority Leader. Of course, the debate was dropped when Hillary won New Hampshire in a stunning rebound.

Now with Hillary’s prospects doubtful past March 4th, a similar discussion is occurring, revolving around how she manages her campaign’s tone during the following fortnight. One faction is calling for an all-out negative approach as a way to salvage the nomination, having already tested an array of attack ads in Wisconsin.  This group appears to be dictating the campaign strategy: last night, Hillary failed to congratulate Obama, instead using her allotted network time to launch an attack-laden “contrast” speech. She repeated the same rhetoric today in New York.

The criticisms are dusted-off lines from before, hitting the themes of “only one is ready to be commander in chief,” and “only one can face the Republicans.” Yet regardless of the intensity and frequency of the attacks, the words are not swaying voters. Wisconsin voters spoke to both jabs – rating the two equally on readiness for the presidency and deeming Obama the more electable by a 3:2 margin.  The risks associated with such negativity are high, most notably squandering the goodwill the Clintons have built up among the Democratic party. But the Clintons have shown a pattern of focusing on the immediate win and counting on smoothing ruffled feathers later.

The other group in the campaign is calling for less of the “scorched earth” tactics in order to save Hillary’s future political options.  There is a Republican analogy to be made. About a week before Florida, Rudy Giuliani’s standing plummeted in the Florida polls, his firewall morphing into his pyre. Shunted to the side in the caustic McCain-Romney feud, Giuliani struggled to distinguish himself. Yet he declined to depart the race hurling fireballs; instead, he maintained a positive demeanor and accepted his fate. There have been many parallels between the two New Yorkers this cycle – early front-runners, relying on a momentum-proof strategy, focusing on large states.  If Hillary were to follow Giuliani’s lead, she would have little chance at the nomination, but a brighter political future.

Two Diverging Campaigns

“Houston, I think we’ve achieved liftoff.” – Barack Obama

“Hillary Clinton is close to being forced from the stage by another lady — the fat one who likes to sing.” – John Heilemann

Stat of the Day – Obama’s Margin of Victory

The average margin of victory for Obama over his ten-state winning streak – 33%.

Gotta Love It

The networks cut Hillary off mid-sentence to switch to Obama’s victory speech.

Obama Wins Wisconsin

The networks call it.

McCain Attacks Obama

Barely a few minutes into his victory speech, McCain outlines his line of attack against Obama:

I will fight every day in this campaign to make sure that Americans are not deceived by an eloquent and empty call for change that promises no more than a holiday from history and a return to the false promises and failed philosophy that trusts in government more than the people.

Wisconsin Exit Polls

CNN has the exit polls, indicating a double-digit win for Obama. Take-aways:

* Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

* Income less than $50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

* Most likely to win in November: Obama 63%, Clinton 37%

* Most qualified to be commander in chief: Clinton 50%, Obama 48%

* 80% satisfied if Obama the nominee, 68% if Clinton the nominee

* 54% said Clinton attacked unfairly, 34% said the same about Obama

The last remnants of Hillary’s coalition include white seniors, Catholics, and uneducated voters. Yet she narrowly wins these demographics, while Obama runs away with the others.

Wisconsin Exit Polls, Part Three

More on exit polling:

CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer said the exit poll numbers were similar to those seen in Virginia, a state Obama won handily as part of the Feb. 12 Potomac Primary.

“There can’t be very much happiness in the Clinton camp tonight,” Schieffer said. “She really is going to have her back to the wall now. Unless she does well in Texas and Ohio, I think this thing is about done for her.”

Obama won Virginia by 28 points – a Wisconsin victory by a similar margin would be huge, meaning he had encroached on Hillary’s core constituencies.  Still, it’s important to warn that these numbers are early.

More on Wisconsin Exit Polls

Early exit polls indicate Obama is cutting into Clinton’s core base while preserving his own. Key findings:

Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%

Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%