Behind McCain’s Fall

McCain’s tracking numbers against the S&P 500 over the past two weeks, with a two-day lag to let the market results filter through Gallup’s rolling average:

McCain’s floor hovers around forty percent, accounting for the divergence at the end, but regardless, the correlation between the two data sets is a robust 0.77.

As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”

In this election, as in nearly all before, a black swan has shaped the race’s trajectory: one of those unforeseeable external events that pops up in the last month or so, bearing an impact far greater than any of the daily fluctuations dissected by the punditry.  Hanging chads and the ilk brought Florida to a standstill; Osama bin Laden released a tape a few days before the 2004 election; and now, the markets have scrolled red amidst a storm of fear and uncertainty.

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128 Responses to Behind McCain’s Fall

  1. Great post! Thank you for sharing :-)

  2. [...] 2008 | Tags: John McCain, politics, President 2008, S&P 500, Wall Street | by robnesvacil Fun with numbers. I’m not sure how accurate that is, but if it’s true… wow. [...]

  3. [...] 10, 2008 by covertzero State of the Union came up with this nifty graph showing how eerily similar McCain’s poll numbers coincide with the S&P [...]

  4. cassandra says:

    Hmm, only, it wasn’t “unforeseeable.” Plenty of people saw it coming years ago. Thanks to thehousingbubbleblog.com and its commenters I got out of equities a year ago and waited for this exact “unforeseeable” debacle to occur.

  5. Mike says:

    The Democrats have been “shortselling” the economy for the past 8 years and lo and behold, their affirmative action subprime mortgages actually caused a crash. It is almost as if it was orchestrated by the Democrats and their allies in the major media.

  6. David says:

    Are the McCain numbers a result of the markets going down or are the markets reacting to Obama’s numbers on the rise…?

  7. Latin Wisdom says:

    Cum hoc ergo propter hoc.

  8. Huan says:

    not sure 2 weeks sample means that much
    i suspect the two curves are associative rather than cause & effect
    but if you are looking for a cause & effect assoication, you can also argue from the same data that as McCain’s prospects dims, so too does the S&P

  9. Angus Dei says:

    This is exactly backwards from what it ought to be by rights according to the historical record – Carter’s 1977 signing of the bill set the stage, later Democrat sponsored legislation that loosened credit rules, Democrat lead intimidation lawsuits to loosen them up further, Democrat party-line votes against reforming the FM twins – but the American electorate has never been known to be particularly informed, much less logical.

    Still, McCain is way out performing the S&P right now. LOL!

  10. [...] Graph of the Markets and McCain Behind McCain’s Fall The State of the Union coco Attached [...]

  11. rpm1122 says:

    For an astrological perspective on McCain, Palin, Obama and Biden, check out http://www.robertphoenix.com

  12. Anthony says:

    I am a McCain supporter and frankly came to the conclusion when he suspended his campaign and headed back to DC for the bailout bill, he was in essence conceding the election

  13. hogarth says:

    Democrats: horribly short-sighted and wrong about the Surge. Horribly short-sighted and wrong about Fannie & Freddie. Yet they gain over the guy that was right about both??

    The media remains more powerful than I had hoped or imagined.

  14. scsd says:

    don’t you think it works both ways? people are turning to obama because the market is falling, but in a hideous irony, the market is falling because (among other things) it sees that obama is about to become president.

    to deny this is to say that the markets don’t watch the presidential race, which is nonsense. of course they do, and they know that $700 b government-run investment bank will soon be in his hands. the market’s behavior is not a vote of confidence in the coming of President Obama.

  15. Taxpayer says:

    Democrats agressively blame Wall Street greed and Republicans.

    McCain blames Wall Street, and says there is plenty of blame to go around, and advocates “reaching across the aisle” to the Democrats. Any allocation of blame to Democrats is soft, indirect, and between the lines. Zero effort to make the Democrats – Barney ‘roll the dice” Frank and Chris Dodd – the poster boys for this problem – which they should be for blocking Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac reform.

    Back from across the aisle comes a knife in the back and another round of “blame the Republicans”. In-the-tank media amplifies the Democratic message.

    Is it any wonder that many voters conclude its the Republican’s fault?

    McCain is losing by default.

  16. Anonymous says:

    i HAVE TO LAUGH AT THE FOLKS ON THIS BOARD…it is not the democrat’s who have been in power for 30years! The creeps in red brought this meltdown on and all the lying in the red states can’t change that…for decades to come no one will truest republicans. DECADES!

    • It’s not the Democrats or Republicans to be blamed, but the whole bunch should. Most politicians are just a bunch of self promoting, lying, used car salesmen with a flashy smile. And they’re not the ones at fault either. All blame can be attributed to Wall Street as they pull the strings for all in office. The whole system is corrupt.

  17. ryan says:

    i HAVE TO LAUGH AT THE FOLKS ON THIS BOARD…it is not the democrat’s who have been in power for 30years! The creeps in red brought this meltdown on and all the lying in the red states can’t change that…for decades to come no one will truest republicans. DECADES!

  18. ryan says:

    No one will ever trust a republican with a dollar or a vote again for thirty years.

  19. mbabbitt says:

    ryan: Who pushed Financial Institutions to take on loans from people who cannot afford them? The do-gooder Democrats: CRA, ACORN, Fannie/Freddie — and who fought the Republicans’ attempt to regulate Fannie and Freddie? Yes, the Democrats. By the way: Correlation does not equal causation.

  20. Publius says:

    Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. A statistician would point out that the two graphs do not strongly correlate.

    Both show downward trends in a 35-45% range. ZOMG.

  21. wingnuts to iraq says:

    i can’t believe all them black people fooled Wall St. in to making Trillions of dollars of derivatives and leveraged securities, then fooled all those pension funds in to buying them! Damn, those poor people are good!

    Just once–mind you–ONCE–I’d like to see a Republican own they failure that they have produced for America.

    GOP: ALL YOUR IDEAS FAIL. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

  22. Robert Johnson says:

    And this should be viewed as an ameliorating fact because . . . ?

    The electorate – by landslide numbers – equates the current debacle with Republican economic policies and performance?

    The deeper the crisis the less the Americans – by landslide margins – thinks McCain-Palin incapable of resolving the crisis?

    The more uncertain and frightened the people become the less reassured they want McCain -Palin as leaders?

    Help me out here. I’m really struggling…. I guess we are being told not to feel bad about the unmitigated ass-whipping we’re getting because, after all, if after eight years of a Republican administration the economy were flying high and the Dow was at 15,000 then McCain-Palin would be a shoo-in. Okay. That make us feel much better. Thanks.

  23. wingnuts to iraq says:

    mbabbitt is a racist and a moron.

    I mean, how the hell did these poor people convince Goldman, Merril, etc. to leverage against these sub-prime mortgages 40:1? Oh wait, they didn’t.

    Lookie–another Republican MORAN who can’t take responsibility for hte failure of ALL THINGS REPUBLICAN.

    Why am I not surprised?

    Racist. and stupid.

    If you’re posting on this blog… you are not wealthy… so why do you defend them? You got more in common with poor black people then you do with the elite.

  24. Daniel says:

    It is a very interesting graph, but I think that McCain would have been in a tight spot no matter what. The Palin Boomlet showed, I think, how unenthused the conservative base was before the Governor came. McCain was a non-conservative politician trying to rally a conservative base.

    And about the economic crisis, there is enough blame to go around on both parties. Yes the Dems have had the majority the last two years, but previous to that the GOP had it for 10 years.

  25. ryan says:

    Good ridance to bad trash. Republicanism is now a broken and discredited pathology that is only venerated in the former slave states.

  26. Kenneth says:

    You talk about how the Democrats and Obama are to blame for this meltdown. Sure, John McCain said 2 years ago that this was going to happen. But look at his record for the last 30 years. He voted AGAINST regulation 23 times. You wanna talk about short sightedness? Its short sighted to give him credit for something he did 2 years ago when he’s had 30 years to speak up about it.

  27. mbabbitt says:

    ryan: I used to be a Saul Alinsky, Herbert Marcuse, Republican=bad Democrat. Don’t be so sure that one day you will not become convinced that true American Conservatism is the only sane political philosophy. I remember telling my brother that he should kill me if I ever became a Republican, that’s how much I hated them. But I learned later on that the entity I hated didn’t exist but was a bigoted stereotype as ignorant as any kkk racist. Of course, you would have to hate Republicans if they were as evil as portrayed by the Liberal media. Yet when the mirage dissolves you realize how many years you wasted hating a manufactured phantom. But you are not ready to see anything close to this, so all I can say is Godspeed.

  28. Russ says:

    I love these statistics.. Often the ones that never mention how many people were or what class of people were targeted for this poll. Seriously, give credentials for these polls people. Just because the writer polled 10 of his friends in his basement during halftime doesn’t make a credible poll.

  29. ryan says:

    mbabbit: My brother is president of a company on the nasdaq. My other borther is a banker in London. I know up close what greed looks like and it has a republican face and it is not pretty. Republicans are motivated by three things: greed, bigotry and oppression. That’s it. I have met many, many of them and I would not have one in my home.

  30. Anonymous says:

    Russ: The write-up clearly states that the poll results came from Gallup. What’s this “ten of his friends in a basement” rubbish?

  31. smurflaw says:

    Well, the Republican lies to the American citizens for the past eight years finally come home to roost! They (Repubs) get everything they deserve. All honest Americans and the Democratic Party finally get our country back! Long live Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. Gubbi says:

    Well, people need to stop looking back and search for blame points. There might be some on Democrats’ side and some on Republicans’ side. And no one is 100% sure which one of these or if all of these contributed to the economic crisis.

    Look at the solutions being offered by both the candidates. One wants more regulation, the other wants more deregulation. One says he won’t touch the taxes of those below $40K and increase taxes for those above it, the other says he’ll give tax cuts to the wealthy. One says spend more on education, health and alternative energies, the other says reduce government spending and finance the war.

    Many things should be clear by pondering upon these solutions.

  33. KS4BHO says:

    While I do think there is adequate blame to spread around, I keep hearing repubs blaming this on Clinton. If Clinton did something and they thought it was a danger to the economy, yet sat back and did nothing for the past 8 years, they should be in prison with the execs of the lending companies.

    I have to say that McCain is running a campaign I never thought I would see from him. Even though I am an Obama supporter, I have liked McCain for years because of his honesty and integrity. Now I am just shaking my head and wondering why he would want to end his career on such a negative note.

  34. ryan says:

    No need to look for whom to blame. The republicans are to blame. That is simply a fact and all the distortion and twisted logic of the right wing will not change that fact.

  35. C.M.O.T. Dibbler says:

    GOP: ALL YOUR IDEAS FAIL. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

    Like freeing the slaves? Hmm.

    But I’m curious whether any of the wild-eyed leftish shitheads now gleefully pointing to a decade of “failed” Republican policies can actually point to even one specific Republican-initiated law, or Bush Administration policy, which has any relevance whatsoever to the present credit and equity crunch.

    I mean, at least the Clinton-era CRA and the Democratic block of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac reform has some plausible connection to what we’re seeing here, although — natch! — the Obamabots argue the connection is weak, tenuous, and besides that’s not the Fannie and Freddie they knew blah blah.

    But on the other side: what specific policies or laws championed by Republicans have any relationship whatsoever to the crisis? Huh? Generic cries of “favoring dergulation” don’t quite cut it. What deregulation? What did the Republicans “deregulate” that has anything to do with this mess? The only “deregulation” I know of is the repeal of Glass-Steagall, which Bill Clinton signed into law.

    So c’mon, fruitcakes. It’s the Republicans fault, you say. Point to the linkage between Republican actions and this mess, if you can.

  36. Ed says:

    Ha ha! “This mess is all the Democrats’ fault because they have a 50% chance of winning the presidential election next month.” Good grief some people are desperately reaching for straws in a pathetic effort to divert blame away from their commune of loyalty.

  37. ryan says:

    Okay, Dibbler read: America: What Went Wrong? an expanded version of a nine-part series originally published by the Philadelphia Inquirer. It lists all the disastrous deregulations that the republicans pushed thru Congress (often in the middle of the night) to make themselves rich at the expense of America.

  38. Working overtime to cover my bills says:

    You people (both Dems and Repubs) are pathetic. You sit here and try to nitpick as though one side or the other could ever claim to be innocent of the wrong doing. Republicans have a reputation for being greedy bastards who lie, cheat and steal for every dime to line their pockets. Democrats have the rep for being naive fools with a martyr complex who are hell bent on milking the rich to fund their “social reform.” The problem? We’re still electing idiots.

    Neither health care plan is worth shit. A ton of Dems voted for the Iraq war (and the multi-billion dollar sink hole that followed). The Republicans have continually mismanaged the entire ordeal. But no one wants to admit they may have been a complete screw up. I’ll tell you who needs to be president. The first politician that stands up and says, “we screwed the pooch. All of us did. Who cares how or on whose watch. Let’s work on fixing it.” Enough with the damn blame game.

  39. ed says:

    It was amazing to read all those luminaries use the opportunity to lobby their case for less or “consultative” regulation, and completely what everybody sees as one of the major causes of this crisis: the absurdly high systemwide level of leverage of the financial system. The proliferation of derivatives, funds, institutions lead to a segmented system where the virtual level of wealth was about ten times the actual net wealth. The system needs a complete overhauld, and in the new system there will not be space for these characters, all of them specialized in merely repackaging financial capital, not aggregating value to it.

  40. logical says:

    “Why plant bombs when we can have a live wire far left liberal in the White House?” Bill Ayers said to his buddy OBama.

    Obama the Kenya borne will soon be exposed in lawsuit , BERG vs. OBAMA, for
    not providing the credentials to be president. Hey OBAMA put up or SHUT UP. Already !

    say NObAMA

  41. Ed says:

    The program of “voluntary self-regulation” (i.e. no regulatory oversight) for investment banks established by the SEC commissioners picked by the Bush Administration in 2004 surely had nothing to do with this. Such civic-minded folk would never succumb to lobbying pressure by wealthy businesses in the financial sector.

    And conservatives are well-known for favoring human rights over monetary gains, so naturally we should start thanking the current Republican party for being responsible for black freedom 150 years ago.

  42. ed says:

    Bill, now that your side has screwed the entire world you want to share the blame. Sorry, republicans are 100% responsible. And until every last republican is forced from office there will be no real progress.

  43. ed says:

    Read: America: What Went Wrong? an expanded version of a nine-part series originally published by the Philadelphia Inquirer. It lists all the disastrous deregulations that the republicans have pushed thru Congress (often in the middle of the night) to make themselves rich at the expense of America.

  44. Anonymous says:

    And look what McCain said about his infatuation with deregulation: “Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.” Well that’s a great philosophy, seeing where it’s got us.

  45. averageuscitizen says:

    It’s incredible that after 7 years of Conservative values in the White House with 6 of those years with conservative leads in the house and senate, that the Democrats are being blamed for the economic failures of this administration.

    The Conservatives could have done anything they wanted, but instead chose to stand behind George Bush and follow that idiot like lemmings off a cliff. Though the democratic supported CRA rules did contribute to the housing crisis, it was only a fraction of the total picture.

    Obscene disregard for common sense in the financial markets, wild eyed speculators, over-consumption and the lax rules regarding financial derivatives as well as unfettered greed played the major role in this fiasco.

    Both private and public oversight and regulations were not enforced, the President instead of asking the American people to make a small sacrifice during the time of war…told them to go shopping. If you listen to every State of the Union Address for the last 7 years…you will hear the entire congress stand up and cheer when the “ownership” society that they claimed credit for was touted by King George.

    Most American citizens with a lick of sense were shaking their heads and waiting for the big shell game to come crashing down.

    Yes…it’s the economy stupid…and the zig zag, crazy man rhetoric being spouted by the radical right of late that is turning the American people away from McCain.

  46. [...] the State of the Union blog gathered some recent empirical evidence to support this claim. The chart below matches up John [...]

  47. Anonymous says:

    If you think the markets are going down in anticipation of an Obama presidency, you are a complete moron and shouldn’t be investing. Forget about Iceland’s government seizing Kaupthing, the lifting of the ban on short-selling, the Lehman CDS auction…no, Obama is obviously a tax-and-spend liberal who will ruin our economy.

    The Republicans’ complete lack of fiscal responsibility is one of the major culprits behind this crisis, if not the main one. We could have saved the surpluses of the Clinton years and been in a much stronger position now, but instead Bush squandered those surpluses on tax cuts that were far more than what was necessary (plus the war…). McCain can rail against pork-barrel spending all he wants, but $18 billion is nothing compared to the deficits he would run up with his tax cuts and continuation of the Iraq war. In fact, the CBO estimated that McCain’s economic policies will increase the deficit THREE TIMES more than Obama’s. So much for the Republicans’ fiscal conservatism…they haven’t been fiscally conservative since Eisenhower.

  48. Floridafish says:

    I’m not sure Republicans are worried what they look like right now, but they should worry about what they will look like in 50-100yrs. I beleive history will be told and the Republican will be shown for what they are. The revisionist history they try doesn’t work anymore thanks to the internet and the instant communication age. Someone can pass gas in Wash. state and people in Fl. will know about it before the guy sitting next to him does thanks to the tubes. I also think that’s why the Republicans will lose this year. The online movement that the Progressives deploy is light years ahead of anything the Republicans have put together. That is beginning to come to the front now and will for many election cycles to come(IMHO). I can see it in many blog sites, the Republican voice is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. And thank god for that.

  49. workn2gether says:

    John McCain is “proud” of his “old friend”, campaign donor and supporter Gordon Liddy — an old friend who who urged his radio program listeners to kill federal agents and advised them on how to do so, and plotted to kill a mainstream media journalist.

    G. Gordon Liddy. Liddy served four and a half years in prison for his role in the break-ins at the Watergate and at Daniel Ellsberg’s psychologist’s office. He has acknowledged preparing to kill someone during the Ellsberg break-in “if necessary.” He plotted to kill journalist Jack Anderson. He plotted with a “gangland figure” to murder Howard Hunt in order to thwart an investigation. He plotted to firebomb the Brookings Institution. He used Nazi terminology to outline a plan to kidnap “leftist guerillas” at the 1972 GOP convention. And Liddy’s bad acts were not confined to the early 1970s. In the 1990s, he instructed his radio audience on how to shoot Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms agents (“Go for a head shot; they’re going to be wearing bulletproof vests.” In case anyone missed the subtlety of his point, Liddy also insisted: “Kill the sons of bitches.”) During Bill Clinton’s presidency, Liddy boasted that he named his shooting targets after the Clintons.

    Liddy has donated $5,000 to McCain’s campaigns since 1998, including $1,000 in February 2008. In addition, McCain has appeared on Liddy’s radio show during the presidential campaign, including as recently as May. An online video labeled, “John McCain On The G. Gordon Liddy Show 11/8/07,” includes a discussion between Liddy and McCain, whom Liddy described as an “old friend.” During the segment, McCain praised Liddy’s “adherence to the principles and philosophies that keep our nation great,” said he was “proud” of Liddy, and said that “it’s always a pleasure for me to come on your program.”

    Liddy has even hosted a fundraiser for McCain at his home.

  50. dot dot dash says:

    I love how right wing types try to pin the economic meltdown on the Democrats when the Republicans have controlled everything until 2 years ago. And suddenly it’s the Democrats’ fault. Uh huh. Take a look in a mirror.

  51. Daedric says:

    Ryan: you sound seriously bitter. Perhaps you should reflect on how this may have mutated the reality of your perceptions.

    I don’t care to defend “Republicanism” but I would definitely say there is plenty of stinky trash on the Dem side.

    There is a difference between ideology and application ; The best way to tell if a politician is lying is to check to see if her/his mouth is moving.

  52. ed says:

    The first thing Obama should do is create a cadre of bloodthirsty lawyers and give them a bulletproof mandate to claw-back as much compensation as they can from the thieves in that meeting and the rest of their gangster crew. Homes, accounts, policies anything they can get their hands on and return it to the US Treasury.

  53. ed says:

    Daedric, perhaps you should GFY.

  54. amosngweien says:

    wad the hell

  55. Anonymous says:

    Bloodthirsty lawyers to get back that $440,000 from AIG’s junket.

  56. Jolene says:

    All it needs is some terrorist action against America during this one month and you will see that chart shooting through the roof.

  57. Bob says:

    Unforseen? Hah. Anyone who read the NY Times in 1999 would know that the Fannie Mae plan was a bad one:

    http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

    In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980′s.

    ”From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,” said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ”If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.”

  58. unvarnishedtruth says:

    What’s interesting about these articles and the replies they generate is they indicate the low reading and comprehension level of the American public–on both sides.

  59. JD says:

    Did you ever consider the opposite conclusion? That McCain’s apparently declining electoral popularity is exacerbating the fear and panic in the markets due to Obama’s appalling economic policies?

  60. raybear says:

    unvarnishedtruth:
    Agreed. But is there really a need to be egotistical or judgmental about it? I mean, an opinion is an opinion, whether it’s well-worded or not.

  61. Header says:

    Huan is right, though there probably is some causality. Jolene is right too – all we need is one tape from OBL saying “Death to America” and the public will crap a gold one. And we get a madman for a Pres., someone who will pass away from some opportunistic predisposed disease and then we get Palin as President. God help us.

    mbabbit has the quote wrong: Correlation does not IMPLY causation. Written the way he wrote it, it is an illogical sentance.

    Meanwhile C.M.O.T. Dibbler states that Clinton’s signature on the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act provisions forbidding banks to own brokerages is a sin of the Dems – he should try to understand that the bill had lots of good pieces in it and was developed by the Republican majority in Congress. It also had a little rider stating (essentially) brokerages should self-regulate, thanks to that low-ball “Economist” Phil Gramm who also happens to think we’re all whiners and is McCain’s Econ advisor. “Fox guarding the hen house” is an apropos saying here. Hell’s bells, even Adam Smith had words to say about self-interest and the “unfettered” market.

    Meanwhile, no less a bidnissman than Warren Buffet warned about highly-leveraged derivatives, which is the sorry-assed investment vehicle that got us into this mess (not Fanny Mae, or Freddie Mac, or poor people buying homes, or greedy bankers). Of course, it doesn’t help when (unregulated) mortgage brokers cash in on the housing boom by slinging dodgy loans. Like the guy I know whose $2k/month mortgage (a stretch to begin with) gets bumped to $2.4k when the new loan owner “discovers” a math error. He lost his place.

    When you set the market up to take advantage of opportunities, people will do so. There were warnings, but they weren’t heeded. It wasn’t dems or repubs that did it – it was a lousy and risky investment vehicle that wasn’t completly understood.

    Get off it, you buttheads – whatever happened to a sense of compassion? Whatever happen to Christian values, where you’re SUPPOSED to be your brother’s keeper, and love you neighbor as yourself? Being a conservative doesn’t have to mean running over the guy with a car and then stopping to toss him in the ditch. We all have skin in this game and if you want to snark about and vote for the madman McCain and his dim-witted VP pick Palin, do so. If they win and when the shit hits the fan, should we feel compassion for you if you’re the one in the ditch?

  62. GT says:

    Why not chart Obama’s poll numbers against the DOW, then we’d see the true story – whenver Obam’s poll numbers go up, the market reponds by crashing! If he wins, hold on for dear life!

  63. Bob says:

    This ia not all lost on Sen McCain. Check the McCain campaign response to all this at

    http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/PressReleases/96557315-1694-4d8f-9b0a-c29f0f0872e6.htm

  64. ryan says:

    The unvarnished truth is that unvarnished truth is not sexually satisfied.

  65. ryan says:

    Bob: Those same economists trashed McCain’s mortgage plan. The guy is all over the map.

  66. Anonymous says:

    I wonder if McCain’s mortgage plan was conjured on the spur of the moment…

    Also, I remember the gas tax holiday – no one agreed with McCain (or Hillary).

  67. pjburns says:

    Here’s another possible reason:

    McCain Already Scheming to Play Bush-Style Politics

    http://thetruthburns.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/mccain-already-scheming-to-play-bush-style-politics/

  68. Gordon says:

    That is a really kick-butt correlation. Thanks for the awesome graph.

    I have a market analysis on my blog, http://www.aitj-co.com/gcsgz5/blog is you want to check it out, I wonder how McCain and Obama’s numbers will stack up against it, exp. in the next few weeks.

  69. Jason from NY says:

    This crisis is caused by idiots (Franklin Raines, Gorelik) who cooked the books. Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, should go to jail for this since they blocked reform that the Republicans were pushing for in the past.

    The Democrats (2008) may be favored because of the cash advantage they have and tradition (incumbent pres is Republican), but the Republicans are way closer to what the constitution says. Above all this, God is in control.

    For all the posts that are vapidly cheerleading the Democrats to win…well good luck. I ain’t voting for any Democrat this year and hopefully everyone gets the message the vast majority of Democrat leaders in congress are a bunch of clowns and socialists. Call me racist all you want…rest assured I will laugh out loud. A spade is a spade.

    Call your congressman to investigate Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae.

    God bless America!
    Go Sarah Palin!

  70. mindlass says:

    If you had to point one finger it clearly would be at Bush. Thousands are to blame, but it was on his watch and he appointed the FED chairman and Treasury Secretary. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make it a McCain issue. Can’t transfer blame just because they are both in same party. Grow up.

    The real danger is the leftist, criminal Muslim candidate who is financed and programmed by our enemies (do the research, it’s clear as day). Don’t also forget that he views women as inferior, has no accomplishments and supports killing living children that survive the brutal “live birth abortion”. This man is sub-human. Wake up before it’s too late. Be careful not to let an ACORN fall and knock you out and erase your vote.

  71. John McCain says:

    Those Obama-witches are behind this. Michelle and That One use voodoo to stop me. Don’t give up on me!
    Vote white!
    We are discriminated because we are white.
    Vote for me.

  72. ???????? says:

    Ummmmmmmmmmmm………………………………………………………………………………..

  73. dnierfu says:

    The republicans will do all they can to blame the democrats for the meltdown. It’s junk science, nothing else. The predatory loan practices and using mathematicians to hide and break up the risk into small pices was the cause of this meltdown. A program to help people into homes was twisted into a financial scheme-the bad credit decisions and the bankers who manipulated the system for a commission as well as the institutions who spread their deceipt all over the world are to blame.

  74. fightingmad says:

    it is amazing how it is always a partys fault. Seems to me the Democrats control congress, not Bush and the republicans. I think all will be surprised when the votes are counted, I will still vote for Mcain

  75. lehtoski says:

    Democrats v. Republicans and the Market

    http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/001233.htm

    The problem with the Republican Conservative Movement

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10brooks.html?_r=1&em

  76. TheRepublicansDidIt says:

    The Republicans still act like they control the Senate by filibustering everything they don’t like. Whatever happened to their “bring it to a vote” mantra?

  77. Haha says:

    You republicans are in such denial. Usually this is the point where I would make some longwinded post dissecting everything you people have said and spun and actually post links and show proof to why you are all horribly wrong/misinformed/full of shit, but instead I will simply quote every major professional athlete when someone is talking trash to them from across the field in the third quarter of a blow out;

    “Scoreboard.”

  78. Matt says:

    Mike Says:
    October 10, 2008 at 5:04 pm

    Thanks Mike for this classic, I’ve been passing it around to friends for a great laugh! Next I’m going to send a “Lizards control the senate” post and a “squirrels killed kennedy” post. :

    “The Democrats have been “shortselling” the economy for the past 8 years and lo and behold, their affirmative action subprime mortgages actually caused a crash. It is almost as if it was orchestrated by the Democrats and their allies in the major media.”

  79. Jason from NY says:

    Haha – and are those links you planned from the communist manifesto NY Times?

  80. Andrew from NY says:

    The whole “Democrats weren’t in control so it’s the Republicans fault” narrative is a red herring for the ignorant. Educate yourselves people. If subprime loans hadn’t existed neither would this recent economic crisis.

  81. ryan says:

    Wall street had dozens of exotic swaps and deals and financial tricks that have failed that have nothing whatever to do with mortgages. Wall street had become a casino and the house finally lost. Why? Because Republicans banished any and all oversight.

  82. [...] From State of the Union. [...]

  83. Andrew from NY says:

    Unfortunately for you ryan, the evidence does not bear out any of your claims. There’s a reason that people who claim deregulation is what caused this never cite any specific legislation or deregulation activity – because it’s baseless nonsense.

  84. Ghazala Khan says:

    Interview Request

    Hello Dear and Respected,
    I hope you are fine and carrying on the great work you have been doing for the Internet surfers. I am Ghazala Khan from The Pakistani Spectator (TPS), We at TPS throw a candid look on everything happening in and for Pakistan in the world. We are trying to contribute our humble share in the webosphere. Our aim is to foster peace, progress and harmony with passion.

    We at TPS are carrying out a new series of interviews with the notable passionate bloggers, writers, and webmasters. In that regard, we would like to interview you, if you don’t mind. Please send us your approval for your interview at my email address “ghazala.khi at gmail.com”, so that I could send you the Interview questions. We would be extremely grateful.

    regards.

    Ghazala Khan
    The Pakistani Spectator

    http://www.pakspectator.com

  85. expatforobama says:

    Both parties are responsible. Finger pointing is a waste. check out my blog when you have chance.
    expatforobama.wordpress.com

  86. [...] Perhaps the best way of visualising what has happened, is through this fantastic graph, posted by State of the Union (h/t electoral-vote.com).  Look at the way McCain’s fall in popularity almost exactly mirrors [...]

  87. bierne says:

    Did somebody follow the market numbers while McCain was saying that the war was not a mistake and that more troops will be sent to Iraq (if he had any chance to do such a stupid thing.) The market goes down with just the possibility of other 3 Trillions wasted in war. It’s good that McCain at least clarified himself as McSame instead of bullshitting about “change”.

  88. [...] I am pessimistic. Behind McCain’s Fall The State of the Union It’s not particularly rational but it’s real and, more importantly, it fits with past events and [...]

  89. Ash says:

    I know many would love to believe this but not sure I do.

  90. obamasprayer says:

    Look, don’t blame McCain. He just didn’t know.
    He thought the economy was strong. And after meeting Palin once, he decided she was going to be his VP. And he wrong again.
    Vote for real leadership.

    http://www.investmenttips.com

  91. Charles Nickalopoulos says:

    I am not aware of the reported wall-street failure as affecting my life, But the news-people keep saying things are bad, so maybe they are. I have never had many material things, but I still feel blessed. Jesus is still KING OF KINGS, and still in control.

    I just ate a potted meat sandwich, and it was good! And guess what, I had a lemon-flavored Pepsi to go with it. Having said this, I suppose if I had a lot of money, I would be worried about losing it, or least some of it. I guess thank God for what I do have.

  92. Jon says:

    Publius says a statistician would “point out that the two graphs do not strongly correlate.”

    Sounds like more Republican denial of obvious evidence–or else very selective reading on Publius’ part–since a statistician has established that the correlation between the two graphs is a very robust .77.

  93. JD says:

    Although people do tend to blame the incumbent party during an economic downturn, Senator McCain would do himself a great service to point out that the past 16 years have been marked by drastic increases in regulation, bureaucracy, and red tape. We now have one of the most restrictive capital gains taxes in the developed world. The Republican party has to represent a more traditional approach to banking, finance, and governance. A laissez-fare approach is the only approach.

    It’s time for an American Tax Tea Party…our tax system has failed us. We should be looking at the Huckabee (and Neal Boortz) style of Fair Tax. Remove the burden on economic growth if you want economic growth!

    http://www.offeringcommonsense.blogspot.com

  94. [...] McCain’s tracking numbers overlaid with the S&P 500’s closing numbers.(created by State of the Union blog) It paints a pretty compelling picture. I have read that McCain’s internal polling [...]

  95. I’m still thinking that anyone who believes that we can tax and spend our way out of a depression failed history class.
    A Democrat will FAIL during a depression,
    This housing thing has been a KNOWN issue since 911 and anyone who has been ignoring it deserves what they get.
    It’s a miracle that Bush’s plans have staved the madness off this long while the democrat house was gnawing at his good leg.

  96. ryan says:

    this is for the republican assholes who say democrats are to blame: rtake out your credit card TERMS AND AGREEMENTS booklet and you will find that THE REGULATIONS WITHIN that booklet screw the cinsumer. Who made those regulations: THE F’IN REPUBLICANS. DEATH TO those who would dominate the poor.

  97. Jennifer says:

    I wish people would see that with all our economy is going through the answer is not in creating new programs and spending money we don’t have. We can’t go to the extreme left and expect to come out alright. To say that all the problems we are having now are because of the Republicans is bull seeing as it was both democrats and republicans who got us into this mess. Has Obama ever showed bipartisanship? Has he even made a concrete vote or does he always just vote “present”! Please people, don’t get so swept up in hype that you don’t use your brain to think before you vote!

  98. Bell says:

    Well, McCain’s number’s today are near where they were prior to the conventions. But yeah, we American people know he’s bad for the economy. The graph is cool. Thanks for posting.

  99. Max says:

    McCain’s bad for the economy? Obama’s ratings go up and the dow drops, there is fear of an Obama presidency. An Obama presidency will make our economic situation worse NOT better. Watch the ratings change for McCain positively and see the dow respond accordingly.

  100. connetta says:

    How can anyone blame Democrats for anything over the past 8 years.???? i don’t get their logic on this Bush vetoed everything he could. .i watched every time Bush talked, every single time for 8 years..he refused to talk about the ecconamy from day one. when he’d get on t.v. he’d first say “the ecconamy is fine” now we got that out of the way” …and then he refused to talk or answer questions about it untill it was too far gone. there is no-one to blame here, but Bush . A Republican went into office..he decided to fight a war, and went somewhere else- not where we intened the war to be.., and stayed there making us pay and pay and pay untill we can’t pay anymore..America is sinking because of George Bush, he did this…When Democrats was in office i was doing fine and dandy.
    as for McCain, from what i’ve seen he’s for rich people and copies everything the democrats say and do. from his campain slogans to a woman running for office..he’s a joke. don’t people realize that big eyed woman will out live him? Can’t people see he copies Obamma because Obamma is right?

  101. LJH says:

    I guess when the Democrats have complete control and we are all paying more taxes, everyone will be happy. I love the way Obama says, ” who’s been in powere for 8 years?” I guess the last two don’t count. Many folk believe everything was great economically under Clinton. By the way, how do the folks from the 1993/2001 WTC bombings, American Towers in Africa, USS Cole, etc.. spend all their riches. I guess the fact that we haven’t been attacked since 9/11 means nothing. If folks think Obama wil keep us safe and help the middle class – good luck.

  102. Avee says:

    You know, I don’t see any difference between Obama and McCain. Both are socialists and McCain just disgusts me because he’s such an appeaser. At least Obama, who I don’t like, sticks to his socialist principles. The Republican party will regret not backing Ron Paul for the Presidency. He was the only man that would have ripped Obama apart in every debate but the American people don’t like to hear the truth.

  103. LAC says:

    By May of 2008, Bush had vetoed only 10 bills. Only one was before January 2007, when the Democrats took control of Congress. This is the fewest vetoes of ANY modern President. In March of 2008 he set a 200 year record. Not sure what Conetta means when she says, “Bush vetoed everything he could.” When you make such uninformed statements, so out of touch with the truth, everything else you say is suspect. I am sure there are sheeple in your life who will trust someone else, such as you, to inform them about the truth. But there are many who would rather not take someone’s blathering as gospel truth, and instead find out for themselves. As I teach my high school students, there is a great deal of hyperbole and outright manipulation of truth in the media and on the Internet. Reader beware. Obama is no messiah, but neither is McCain. I do remember that Gore was bound to win, and way ahead in poles. We’ll see November 5th (maybe later if there are any hanging chads this time!) Reading many of these comments reminds me why our founding fathers developed the Electoral College. There has to be a limit to giving voice to the ignorant, uneducated masses, many of whom vote Democrat! Have a great day!

  104. Stephanie Danielle says:

    well the recession was gonna happen sooner or later. I guess the upside is that it happened soon enough for Americans to make the right choice. lol I think it was hilarious the way the old lady said Obama was “Arab” haha.

  105. connetta says:

    LAC
    If i voted for Bush 4-8 years ago…. I’d feel very very bad. But i voted against him and i feel very very sad..Put me down all you want, i never said i was smart enough to be presideant or a teacher .. but remember this..when your teaching History in a few years from now and have to tell your students that you supported Bush…you better hope the History books don’t say he was as bad as i think they will say in History books..But for that, we must wait and see. We seen what Bush can do for us.

  106. John McCain says:

    We are living in dangerous times, my friend. Look what I found out on my secret mission between campaigning and working out the bailout plan: As an undercover agent I found a terror camp in Iran!

    We have to go to war with those Mullahs and Muslims. They have weapons of mass destruction.

  107. Have the markets doomed McCain?…

    Great graph from The State of the Union that correlates McCain’s polling numbers with the recent tumble in the SP 500. No word yet on whether yesterday’s bounce had a similar effect on the GOP candidate’s chances. (hat tip: Lombardo…

  108. [...] a telling look at McCain’s economic bugbear last [...]

  109. Adam says:

    Down another 6.5% today. Have you updated this graph to reflect the past week’s slide?

  110. rockmycar says:

    [...] DOWNWARD TRENDS • McCain’s poll numbers follow same route as the markets. [...]

  111. batguano101 says:

    It makes no difference.

    The person appointed will be “elected”.

    The same people who manufactured the financial crisis will continue to use the next person in the White House.

    We The People- are just reeling with the punches.

  112. Saim Baig says:

    Although it makes no difference.But i always believed that McCain was never going to win.

  113. [...] They want to portray Sarah Palin as being a drag upon McCain.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  It was the financial meltdown that sunk McCain, courtesy of State of the Union: [...]

  114. flip kitchen tv…

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