Ranking the Predictions

Georgetown Professor David Walker ranks the different forecasting models: the Iowa Electronic Market came out on top with a 0.2% error, while the RealClearPolitics average (0.3% error) was a close second.

RCP’s success speaks to a larger point about predicting presidential elections: with the abundance of polls, a simple aggregate provides a fairly accurate result.  And, even without polling, plugging a series of macroeconomic variables into a model gets close to the final margin.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: