Ranking the Predictions

Georgetown Professor David Walker ranks the different forecasting models: the Iowa Electronic Market came out on top with a 0.2% error, while the RealClearPolitics average (0.3% error) was a close second.

RCP’s success speaks to a larger point about predicting presidential elections: with the abundance of polls, a simple aggregate provides a fairly accurate result.  And, even without polling, plugging a series of macroeconomic variables into a model gets close to the final margin.

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