SurveyUSA (supposedly one of the most reliable pollsters) released a North Carolina poll today showing the race in a dead heat, 47-47. However, the demographic breakdown appears off by a significant margin, consequently skewing the results.
In 2004, blacks composed 26% of NC turnout. That figure will only increase in this election, but SurveyUSA’s poll pegs black turnout at a comparatively paltry 20% of the electorate. Adjust the demographic tilt to 2004 levels, a conservative estimate by all accounts, and Obama gains nearly five points.
We usually don’t highlight individual polls, but this one was particularly egregious. For now, consider North Carolina likely Obama.