With get-out-the-vote operations playing a critical role this cycle, we’ve put together an online interactive spreadsheet where you can adjust African-American, youth (18-29), and Republican turnout in eighteen states. One possibility:
20% Increase Among Blacks and Youth: Shade both Florida and Nevada blue, providing an additional thirty-two electoral votes that boost Obama’s total to 316. Colorado, Virginia, and Missouri – thirty-three electoral votes combined – narrow to within two percent.
Likelihood: This scenario paints an optimistic electoral map, but one maintaining plausibility. If youth turnout jumps to the national mean, the latter half of the model stands fulfilled. And spurred by the prospect of the first African-American president, blacks could turn out at unprecedented rates.