Effects of Increased Turnout

The Chicago Tribune tinkers with turnout models:

A projection by the Tribune based on the results of the 2004 election shows that a turnout increase of 10 percent among blacks and youths—two groups that have demonstrated considerable excitement over the Obama candidacy—would offer a powerful potential lift to his campaign.

Two states that the Republicans narrowly won last time, Iowa and New Mexico, would switch to the Democratic column. The Republican lead in Ohio would plummet from more than 118,000 votes to fewer than 6,000. A host of Republican states would come into play, while Democratic leads would be substantially cushioned in major blue states that the presumed Republican candidate John McCain has targeted: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

And ten percent, when viewed within the context of the primaries, appears to be a modest estimate:

One indicator of the level of excitement this time: Exit polls from the Democratic primaries in states where such information was available this year indicated turnout among blacks more than doubled from four years earlier, according to an analysis by Bositis.


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