Evaluating Obama Campaign’s Predictions

Back on February 6th, the Obama campaign leaked an internal spreadsheet (.xls) projecting the rest of the primary season. Since then, the predictions have proved prescient, calling races with remarkable accuracy. The campaign has correctly picked the winner of every single contest, with the one exception of Maine (projection – Clinton; actual – Obama). Beginning March 4th, the average error in calculating Obama’s share of the vote is a minuscule 1.71%. To put it into perspective: the projections, made more than one or two months before the actual voting, are more accurate than any pollster’s record.

Using the spreadsheet to examine upcoming contests, both Indiana and North Carolina should be Obama victories by respectable margins. Plugging the percentages into Jay Cost’s handy spreadsheet, Obama could net 150,000 votes out of the two states – partially offsetting Clinton’s 200,000+ gain in Pennsylvania. Though more importantly, winning both could spell an end to the nomination fight.

Note: Here’s a closer look at how the predictions stack up.

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