Over at Intrade.com, a prediction markets website, it’s interesting to note how the Republican field is shaping up. The betting gives Giuliani the highest chance of winning the nomination, 30%, but there is a surprising second-place finisher. Fred Thompson, who hasn’t even declared he’s running, although disclosing his cancer may indicate that he is mulling over a run, comes in second with a 20% chance of winning. Then, McCain is at 18.4% in third and Romney a close fourth at 17.5%.
Just to note, Intrade correctly predicted the winner in 49 out of the 50 states in the 2004 presidential election. That’s a pretty good track record.
On the Democratic side, Hillary is at nearly even odds, Obama’s at 30%, and no one else breaks ten percent. There are also overwhelming odds that the Democrats maintain control of the House and Senate after the 2008 congressional elections.