Momentum Proof?

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut.  Touted as momentum-proof by Rudy Giuliani’s campaign, the tri-state area was a sure sweep for the  mayor.  No longer.  John McCain has captured the lead in all three states, establishing himself as the national front-runner.  What happened to Giuliani’s crumbling candidacy?

Part of the reason is his struggle to remain relevant during the last month, as attention swarmed around the early states.  Discounting the early states, Giuliani racked up a series of embarrassing finishes in the hope of a Florida firewall.  Yet the firewall relied on a muddled field lacking a clear alternative.  An alternative has emerged, a rejuvenated McCain sparked by victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Compounding Giuliani’s struggles are McCain’s strengths.  The senator has the strongest national security credentials amongst the Republican field, effectively nullifying the linchpin of Giuliani’s candidacy.  McCain is the most electable Republican, usurping another of Giuliani’s reputed strengths.  The two candidates are similar - one can siphon votes from another.  Also hurting Giuliani’s candidacy is the economy shifting to the forefront of the campaign, displacing Iraq and terrorism.

The mayor has gambled on an unprecedented strategy, with a large element of luck.  Matters may still change as Giuliani has invested heavily in Florida, but the road ahead is grueling.

Giuliani’s Personality

The reviews of Rudy Giuliani’s performance on Meet the Press are largely positive, saying the mayor emerged relatively unscathed after a bout of aggressive questioning.  Topics that surfaced included his ties to the embattled Bernie Kerik, his questionable legal clients, and his use of a tax-payer funded security detail to protect his then-mistress, now wife, Judith Nathan.  But perhaps the most potent liability for the Giuliani campaign is the mayor’s short temper and abrasive personality.  So far through the campaign, Giuliani has kept his belligerent side under wraps and presented his softer side to voters.  Yet, if elected, would he maintain his friendly demeanor?  Unlikely.

We go back to 2000, six years into his command over New York City.  A Quinnipiac poll reveals his approval rating at 37%, nearing President Bush’s abominable numbers.  Only 27% thought Giuliani had a likable personality, and only 32% thought he worked well with other political leaders.  And even though Giuliani constantly touts his crime reduction policies, a bare majority approved of the way he handled crime.  On the flip side, 80% thought he could “get things done.”  Nonetheless, the mayor’s pugnacious attitude serves to continue the polarization and gridlock now synonymous with Washington.  Qualms about his personality are rightly justified, even if he has managed to soothe them for the past year.

The Republicans’ Split

A fierce onslaught of endorsements has begun, the most notable being Pat Robertson endorsing Rudy Giuliani. The overriding rationale for Robertson’s endorsement: “To me, the overriding issue before the American people is the defense of our population from the blood lust of Islamic terrorists.” How’s that for fearmongering?

In other endorsement news, Sam Brownback lent his support to John McCain’s campaign, the Kansan citing the Arizona senator as ” the best pro-life candidate to beat Hillary Clinton.” Marc Ambinder has his take on how this helps McCain in Iowa. And rounding it all up, Paul Weyrich, a godfather of the modern conservative movement, endorsed Mitt Romney.

What does this recent slew of endorsements mean for the GOP race? The lack of unity reveals deep divisions among leading social conservatives, as they fail to coalesce around a single candidate. As long as the religious vote is divvied up among several candidates (e.g. Romney, Thompson, Huckabee), Giuliani wins out in the end.

An escalating feud between Thompson and Huckabee shows each campaign trying to knock the other out in order to build a larger anti-Giuliani base. However, Romney has the better strategy in also going after Giuliani himself.  Giuliani backers have qualms about their candidate, and Romney criticizing the mayor on the hot-button issue of immigration exacerbates those reservations.

Giuliani On Kerik

Could this come back to haunt the former mayor of New York? Excerpted from The Caucus:

“Sure, there were issues, but if I have the same degree of success and failure [as Bernard Kerik] as president of the United States, this country will be in great shape,” Mr. Giuliani said.

Mr. Kerik [former police commissioner of New York] now faces a possible indictment on a range of federal felony charges, including perhaps tax evasion and bribery, stemming in part from his acceptance of $165,000 in renovations to his Bronx apartment paid for by a construction firm suspected of links to organized crime. In June 2006, he pleaded guilty in the Bronx to state misdemeanor charges relating to the same renovations.

So is Giuliani saying if he evades taxes and accepts bribes while President, it’s fine as long as things improve during his time in office? Giuliani is showing a striking similarity to Bush, where blind loyalty trumps all other matters. Heckuva job, Bernie.

Rudy vs. Romney

In earlier debates, Rudy Giuliani has been reluctant to label Mitt Romney as a flip-flopper.  Since the last debate, affairs have heated up slightly between the two, with Romney going after Giuliani on his immigration issues and Giuliani swiftly counterpunching.

In this debate, it would nice to see Giuliani actually go after Romney and force him to go on the defensive.  First, it’s politically beneficial.  Romney’s crushing the rest of the field in Iowa and New Hampshire and has just started airing ads in South Carolina.  Also, going on the offensive contributes to Rudy’s core campaign strategy of portraying an image of strength.

The debate is now starting, let’s see what happens.

Rudy at $17 Million

The last top-tier candidate from either party to announce fundraising results, Rudy Giuliani reported raising $17 million in the second quarter, with $15 million allocated for primary funds. Giuliani has the most cash on hand among the Republicans at $18 million; Romney has $12 million, and McCain has $2 million. The campaign doubled the number of donors from the first quarter. So rounding up the results:

Barack Obama - $32.5 million ($31.5 million - primary)

Hillary Clinton - $27 million ($21 million - primary)

Mitt Romney - $20.5 million (all primary)

Rudy Giuliani - $17 million ($15 million - primary)

John McCain - $11.2 million ($10.4 million - primary)

John Edwards - $9 million (all primary)

Good News for Giuliani

Now, both New Jersey and New York are likely to have winner-take-all primaries on the Republican side, a move tremendously helpful to Rudy Giuliani.    In the RCP average, Giuliani is up by almost 28% in New Jersey, and he has shown a commanding lead in New York polls.

One thing I don’t like about winner-take-all primaries is that it moves the primary process closer to the Electoral College.  Since the Electoral College system isn’t going to change, the primary process should be preserved with delegates awarded in proportion to candidates’ support.

It remains to be seen if the Democrats do the same thing in the two states, which would boost Hillary Clinton (up by 18% in NJ).

Giuliani Skipping the Ames Straw Poll

Tody, Rudy Giuliani has indicated his intention to skip the Iowa Ames straw poll this summer, yet still be 100% committed to the Iowa caucuses.  A month ago, we wrote a piece advising Giuliani to attend the straw poll, saying it would be a way to show Iowa Republicans he is committed to the state.  The strategy of competing in Iowa yet skipping the straw poll seems risky, and no candidate in the straw poll’s 30-year history has skipped the event and won the caucus.  However, Giuliani avoids spending at least a million dollars on an event that would have been tough for him to win.

Giuliani’s decision ratchets up the pressure on the lower tier of candidates as well.  If Giuliani (whose name will still most likely be on the ballot)  finishes higher than a candidate who devoted a significant effort to Ames, it will be a crushing loss.

Brownback on Giuliani

Giuliani’s support for abortion rights comes up again.  Senator Sam Brownback just said he didn’t think the party would nominate someone who was pro-life, specifically Rudy Giuliani.  Although Brownback would support whoever was the nominee, he said, “We can’t nominate someone who’s not pro-life … it’s not at our core.”

Giuliani Continues to Attack Democrats

Giuliani continues to attack Democrats, this time on the issue of healthcare.  He said the ideas proposed two nights ago were essentially socialized medicine.  Giuliani then brought up a man in California, who told him “once we make healthcare free, we’ll see how expensive it’ll become”.  The audience loudly applauded.  Giuliani’s been talking more in the second half of the debate and has been doing quite well.