What a Bounce!

Obama opens up a fifteen point lead in the latest Newsweek poll, buoyed by the shifting party sentiments:

55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way.

Yowzers!  Couple this with statistical models granting Obama an average of 343.8 electoral votes, and this election may turn into a landslide.

How Divided Are the Dems?

The Obama campaign released a memo today, both pre-spinning tonight’s blowout and attempting to dispel a series of myths. The chief canard:

MYTH 1: The Primary has left Democrats divided.

FACT: Democrats are united behind Barack Obama, even more so than Republicans are united behind McCain

May 12 Washington Post poll shows that Obama wins 81% of Democrats in a matchup against John McCain.

Indeed, more Republicans crossover to vote for Obama (15%) than do Democrats for McCain (13%).

Tonight’s exit polls revealed deep rifts in the Democratic party, at least in the mainly white, less educated, and relatively poor West Virginia.  However, some are erroneously extrapolating these divisions to the general election.

For the past four presidential elections, the Democrat defection rate has been about ten or eleven percent. According to recent polls, with Obama as the nominee, the Democratic crossover to McCain ranges from eleven to fifteen percent. And, this is in the midst of a heated primary. The number of party deserters will only fall from here, and it’s already at a good level relative to history.

Evaluating Obama Campaign’s Predictions

Back on February 6th, the Obama campaign leaked an internal spreadsheet (.xls) projecting the rest of the primary season. Since then, the predictions have proved prescient, calling races with remarkable accuracy. The campaign has correctly picked the winner of every single contest, with the one exception of Maine (projection - Clinton; actual - Obama). Beginning March 4th, the average error in calculating Obama’s share of the vote is a minuscule 1.71%. To put it into perspective: the projections, made more than one or two months before the actual voting, are more accurate than any pollster’s record.

Using the spreadsheet to examine upcoming contests, both Indiana and North Carolina should be Obama victories by respectable margins. Plugging the percentages into Jay Cost’s handy spreadsheet, Obama could net 150,000 votes out of the two states - partially offsetting Clinton’s 200,000+ gain in Pennsylvania. Though more importantly, winning both could spell an end to the nomination fight.

Note: Here’s a closer look at how the predictions stack up.

National Polls on the Democratic Side

After the Oct. 30 debate in Philadelphia, national polls across the board show a dip in Hillary Clinton’s lead.  Before the debate, CNN had: Clinton - 51%, Obama - 21%, Edwards, 15%.  After: Clinton - 44%, Obama - 25%, Edwards - 14%.  Pre-debate, Rasmussen had: Clinton - 49%, Obama - 22%, Edwards - 12%.  Post-debate: Clinton - 41%, Obama - 22%, Edwards - 13%.

Note that in the CNN poll, Obama jumped up, while Edwards actually slipped a point.  Obama’s debate strategy of (mainly) staying above the fray and letting Edwards do most of the heavy hitting seems to have worked.

UPDATE: Another poll to back up this storyline.  The latest WNBC/Marist poll, taken before and after the debate, shows Clinton much weaker in the post-debate sample, dropping from 52% to 43%.   The biggest gainer was “undecided”, moving up from 16% to 22%.

Surprising Poll Numbers

The latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll reveals an interesting tidbit about the Republican race.  One question: “Could you vote for a candidate for president who supports abortion and gay rights if you agree with him on other issues, or could you only vote for a candidate for president who opposes these issues?”  Out of the 39% of Republican primary voters who could only vote for candidates opposing these issues, 19% are supporting Giuliani in the primary.  Another surprising number: a plurality (20%) of Republicans believe Giuliani would be the best among the field at handling social issues such as abortion and gay rights.

There are some fascinating general election numbers revealing Obama’s immense cross-over appeal.  In a hypothetical Clinton vs. Giuliani matchup, Clinton gets 10% of registered Republicans.  On the other hand, Obama is supported by 23% of registered Republicans in a Obama/Giuliani contest.  Clinton vs. Thompson - the junior NY senator gets 12% of Republicans.  Obama vs. Thompson - Obama gets 22% of Republicans.  Obama also beats Clinton in Republican support against McCain and Romney by five and three points, respectively.

Iowa Polling - Confirming Romney Surge?

From Strategic Vision, a new Iowa poll shows Mitt Romney atop the Republican field with 20% of the vote, Rudy Giuliani at 18%, John McCain 16%, and Fred Thompson 10%. This poll is just one of many in the last week that has shown Mitt Romney surging close to or at the top of the Republican field. His growing poll numbers reflect his widespread television advertising and impressive state organization. Another interesting tidbit to point out from the poll: 54% of Republicans favor complete withdrawal from Iraq within the next six months.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards leads with 29%, Barack Obama 24%, and Hillary Clinton 16%. 65% of Democrats are satisfied with their presidential field compared to the 29% of Republicans happy with their candidates.

Polling Roundup - Romney Admired by Social Conservatives?

Polling firm Selzer and Co. has released new Iowa polls, showing Mitt Romney surging into a significant lead and John Edwards leading on the Democratic side.

On the Republican side: Romney 30%, McCain 18%, Giuliani 17%.  This poll drastically differs from two others conducted during the same time period by Zogby and Research 2000.  Those show the top three Republicans all within one or two percentage points.

However, both Zogby and Research 2000 include Fred Thompson in their list of surveyed candidates and Research 2000 also includes Newt Gingrich.  Selzer and Co. only includes declared candidates.  Taking the Zogby poll and shifting all of Fred Thompson’s support to Romney, one obtains similar numbers to the Selzer and Co. poll.  The numbers would be Romney 28%, McCain 18%, and Giuliani 18%.  Doing the same with the Research 2000 poll, the numbers would be Romney 31%, McCain 18%, and Giuliani 17%.

These latest polls may indicate social conservatives accepting Romney as the most genuine of the Republican top-tier.  Even though Romney has flip-flopped on his positions, something McCain fiercely attacked during the last Republican debate,  he at least currently agrees with the social conservative views.  Giuliani wants to take the legal, but rare path on abortion and McCain is also perceived as flawed.

Seltzer and Co. has the Democratic field in Iowa as Edwards with 29%, Obama 23%, and Clinton 21%.

Iowa Polling

Two recent polls have shown the Republican field in Iowa tightening, with John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani clustered near the top.  Zogby just came out with a poll showing Romney at 19% and McCain and Giuliani tied at 18%.  Research 2000 shows similar results: McCain 18%, Giuliani 17%, Romney 16%.   Romney’s increase might be a result of his showing in the first Republican debate.

On the Democratic side, Zogby has Edwards at 26%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 22%.  Research 2000 has Clinton at 28%, Edwards at 26%, and Obama 22%.  Bill Richardson also makes a strong showing in the poll with 7% after going on the airwaves with a humorous series of ads.

Polling Roundup

Out of Wisconsin, Strategic Vision has a new poll. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani leads with 22%. Tommy Thompson, former governor of the state and still popular there, comes in second with 16% of the vote. The number is probably low due to concern about Thompson’s viability as a candidate to break into the top tier. On the Democratic side, Clinton - 38%, Obama - 25%, and Edwards - 17%.

Clinton leads Obama 45%-17% in Florida, a state currently in flux on its status in the Democratic primaries. Having moved its primary up to January 29th, Florida faces sanctions from both major parties. Jon Ausman, a member of the DNC, says the chance is much higher than 50-50 that the election is non-binding.

In California, Clinton leads Obama 37%-28% with Edwards at 15%. The Republican race is much tighter with Giuliani leading McCain 27%-24%.

A national poll from Marist has Clinton more than doubling Obama, 35%-17%, and Edwards places a close third at 15%. 60% of Clinton’s supporters indicate a firm commitment to her, 21% of all Democratic voters. Giuliani leads McCain 28-18%. However, Republican primary voters are much more uncertain about their candidates, with only 30% of Giuliani’s backers firmly committed to him.

In the same Marist poll, 52% of Republicans and 52% of independents say Giuliani’s pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gun rights positions make them less likely to vote for him.

Latest Nevada Poll - Hillary Clinton Leads

In the latest poll from Nevada, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field by a staggering margin garnering 37% of the vote. John Edwards comes in a distant second with 13% and Barack Obama has the support of 12%.

The poll is troubling to the Edwards campaign, which hopes to take advantage of Nevada’s large unionized workforce with Edwards’ pro-organized labor policies. In a recent Fortune article, Edwards “hopes to sail into New Hampshire on the wings of top-place showings in Iowa [where he leads] and Nevada”.  If Edwards fails to pick up ground, a poor showing could dampen his efforts in New Hampshire.

In late February, AFSCME sponsored a presidential forum in Carson City, Nevada for the Democratic candidates.  The one no-show was Barack Obama, who has not spent much time in the state so far.

In the first quarter of ‘07, Clinton significantly outraised the other Democratic candidates in Nevada, receiving over $300,000 in contributions of $200 or more.  Next was Obama with slightly over $60,000.

On the Republican side, there is a four-way tangle at the top, led by John McCain with 19% of the vote.  Mitt Romney gets 15%, Fred Thompson 13%, and Rudy Giuliani 12%.