Bloomberg Watch

Usually, whenever New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is asked about his presidential attentions, he swats away the question by replying, “I’m not running for president.” However, Bloomberg has now changed his wording, choosing a slightly different phrase on WABC radio. He said, “I’m not going to be president”, and then continued, “I’m not going to have the chance to be president.”

The second statement provides some interesting material, although I may be reading too much into it. It has been reported Bloomberg was talking to Ross Perot’s former advisors and setting aside money for a presidential run. Perhaps after looking closely at the election, Bloomberg didn’t think he could win because of the current crop of candidates or because of his background (Bloomberg often says, “How could a divorced, 5-foot-7 Jewish billionaire become president?).  While Democrats have always been generally satisfied with their field, Republican satisfaction has sharply increased with Fred Thompson’s entrance into the race.  So, he decided there was no opportunity or “chance” at becoming president.  I don’t think Bloomberg will run for president but is rather angling himself so he can be influential in the race and promote his ideas.

On Intrade, a prediction markets website, the traders give Bloomberg a 45.9% of entering the race as an independent. However, there hasn’t been much volume on the contract, so the number may be misleading.

Mike Bloomberg Now a Registered Independent

Former Republican NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg has dropped his party affiliation and is now an independent. In a statement released by his office, Bloomberg said, “Although my plans for the future haven’t changed, I believe this brings my affiliation into alignment with how I have led and will continue to lead our City.”

The rest of the statement focuses on overcoming partisanship, rhetoric fitting for an independent run. This latest development only furthers speculation that Bloomberg will throw his hat in the ring, buoyed by his billions and success in New York.

However, much of a Bloomberg candidacy would rely on dissatisfaction with the two party nominees, leaving a final decision months away. Becoming a registered independent is just a step to a run when (and if) the time comes.

Bloomberg Watch

BusinessWeek has a favorable article covering Mike Bloomberg’s tenure as New York Mayor, saying he has the skills “to create a new model for public service—possibly even at the national level should Bloomberg run for President.”

And in an interview with the magazine, Bloomberg says, “But politics, no. I can’t say I have a great deal of respect. I would go to non-partisan elections in a second.”

Rasmussen has some interesting polling showing the dynamics of a Bloomberg entrance.  One tidbit that stood out was that the number of people who consider themselves Democrats has declined to its lowest level in 17 months (the number of people considering themselves Republicans has dropped to the lowest level of the Bush administration).  So, both parties are seeing erosion of supporters into the growing independent class, which benefits a Bloomberg candidacy.  39% of voters would consider voting for him, and 28% would definitely not.

Michael Bloomberg’s Political Donations

Former New York Michael Bloomberg’s past political donations have been nearly perfectly split between Republican and Democratic candidates. As of the end of the 2006 election cycle, Bloomberg had donated $331,200 to Republicans and $327,300 to Democrats, a true independent. He’s donated to John McCain, Chris Dodd, Fred Thompson, and even chipped in for Mitt Romney’s failed 1994 Senate race against Ted Kennedy. Bloomberg has also contributed $5000 to Rudy Giuliani’s Solutions America leadership PAC. On the presidential side, he’s donated to Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and both Bushes.

Bloomberg’s given money to the Democratic National Committee, Republican National Committee, Democratic Congressmen’s leadership PACs, and Republican Congressmen’s leadership PACs. His donations have been diverse and spread out, setting him up perfectly for the “independent” designation.  However, he’s never donated to an independent candidate.

Bloomberg and the Presidency

Speculation has been rampant about New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his plans on the presidency, sparked by his revamped website, mikebloomberg.com, and recent reporting.

Bloomberg has said he will run if he can influence the national debate. With a personal fortune estimated between $7 billion and $13 billion, Bloomberg has set aside a hefty $1 billion as his budget. His team is studying Ross Perot’s campaign strategy and Bloomberg is meeting with Perot’s senior advisers.

Charlie Cook of the National Journal discusses a Bloomberg candidacy, calling him a “shrewd problem solver” and a mayor with an impressive record. Cook also talks about the intriguing possibility of the election being thrown to the House if no candidate receives a majority of the electoral votes. If Bloomberg were to enter the race, he has a shot at winning New York. Then if Bloomberg wins New York, the Democratic candidate wins Ohio, and all other states stay the same as in 2004, the election would be left up to the House.

Bloomberg has said he would enter the race with the sole goal of winning and not as being a Perot-esque spoiler. Republicans are dissatisfied with their candidates, an obvious plus for a Bloomberg candidacy. Democrats are generally satisfied with their field and would likely unite behind their nominee, even if with some reserves, in order to recapture the White House.  Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, can boast of high favorables within her party: 83% among Democrats and 70% among Democratic-leaning independents.   However, Bloomberg is appealing to independents and could obtain much of his support from them.  On his new website, the words “nonpartisan” and “bipartisan” appear rather frequently.

With his monetary advantages and as an independent candidate, Bloomberg can delay an entry into the race until early ‘08.   On a side note, it would be interesting if the election came down to a matchup among a New York troika: Bloomberg, Clinton, and Giuliani.