Edwards Endorsement: Deft Strategy

Tonight’s political maneuvering represents yet another tactical victory for the Obama campaign.  Now, the story is no longer Hillary’s forty-one point blowout in West Virginia, but Obama reclaiming his momentum with a major endorsement.

Edwards decided to endorse recently, but before last night, indicated by his speechwriter’s Facebook status yesterday morning - “writing a speech.”  Then the Obama campaign held the endorsement in its back pocket, putting it on the table the day after West Virginia.  Hillary is going on all the major news networks tonight to try to capitalize on her victory, but the Edwards endorsement will clearly overshadow that.  Again, it’s a brilliant strategic move by the Obama forces.  There had been speculation that Obama would release his April fundraising numbers to stifle a momentary Clinton surge.  Instead of money, it’s one of the biggest endorsements left.

Annotating “The Final Push”

Approaching the last stretch before Iowa, Edwards Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince sent out a memo entitled “The Final Push”, partially annotated below.

We enter the final week before the Iowa Caucus in a position of strength. Nearly every poll finds Edwards enjoying momentum that places us in a statistical tie with Senators Clinton and Obama for first place. CNN’s Opinion Research poll captured Edwards at 26 percent; Strategic Vision found Edwards at 27 percent.

As of now, Iowa is a tossup as Prince says. Nonetheless, Edwards does hold two important advantages. Many of his supporters are previous caucus-goers and are more likely to turn out on January 3rd. Both Clinton and Obama are relying on expanding the traditional group of caucus-goers, a strategy with a questionable track record. Edwards also is the second choice for a plurality of Iowans. Due to the nature of the Iowa caucuses, if a candidate doesn’t reach a 15% viability threshold in a given precinct, supporters are forced to disband and back another person.

But increased energy around our campaign is not limited to Iowa. In New Hampshire, we have climbed to 18 percent support in Gallup and other polls. Last Thursday in Manchester we drew over 600 people while Obama’s close by crowd was roughly 500. In Nevada, we had our best precinct recruitment week ever since we started recruiting precinct captains in the summer. In South Carolina, two recent polls have us jumping 6 percentage points while both of our opponents slide.

Left unsaid is that Edwards is still a distant third in South Carolina, a state he won handily four years ago. Among blacks, who constitute more than 50% of the vote, Edwards registers a paltry 5%. Concerning Nevada, Edwards looks to benefit from the strong union presence in the state. However, the candidates have paid little attention to the Silver State, making its role in the nominating process uncertain.

We know that Senator Clinton will spend the week touting her national security credentials in a move that echoes George Bush’s 2004 campaign. We believe Democrats will not be fooled by efforts to play on their fears.

We also expect Senator Obama to continue his attacks on Senator Edwards. As NBC News, ABC News, CNN, the New York Times, and the Des Moines Register have noted, Obama’s recent attacks on Edwards coincide with Edwards’ gaining steam on the trial. It’s no accident that Obama’s criticisms of Edwards coincide with Edwards’ uptick in recent polls. Paul Krugman observed Obama’s attack on outside labor-funded groups could actually hurt the Democratic Party.

Edwards was the first candidate to mount a major offensive against Clinton, but has now settled back into the optimistic attitude characteristic of him in ‘04. Now, Clinton, and Obama to an extent, are the ones going negative, which may turn off Iowa voters. Perhaps this race will be a repeat of ‘04: Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean clashed, leaving Kerry as the unintended beneficiary.

The results of the Iowa Caucus will kick-off a condensed nomination contest, and we are ready to use the momentum from a strong Iowa finish to propel us in New Hampshire and beyond. We have eight times the number of field staff in the state of New Hampshire than the Edwards campaign had in 2004; we recently added two dozen field staffers in Nevada; and we were the first candidate to run ads in South Carolina - a state Edwards won by 15 points in 2004. Given our support throughout the labor community and our advisors at work in all February 5th states, we will have the infrastructure in place to seize on momentum from strong early place finishes.

Wishful thinking. Both Clinton and Obama have significantly more resources necessary for a strong showing on February 5th. Edwards is well-positioned in Iowa but is incapable of riding the potential momentum to the nomination.

Out of Michigan

Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Biden are all officially off the ballot in Michigan’s January 15 primary, sticking to the first four states sanctioned by the DNC. Hillary’s campaign hasn’t released a statement yet.

The move by the Democrats is politically sound, at least for the primary election. Hillary was leading by double digits in polling, and the candidates signed a pledge not to compete in states breaking DNC rules (namely Michigan and Florida). With no campaigning, it would be nearly impossible for someone to beat Hillary. Withdrawing from the contest lessens the significance of any results out of the Wolverine State.

Concerning the consequences for the general election, it is unclear whether this move will dissuade Michigan voters from voting Democratic. Kerry carried the state’s 17 electoral votes by 3 percent in 2004.

UPDATE: Hillary’s remaining on the ballot, her communications director Howard Wolfson saying, “We will honor the pledge and not campaign or spend money in any state that is not in compliance with the DNC calendar, but it is not necessary to take the steps necessary to remove Senator Clinton’s name from the ballot”.  Dodd is also staying in the race in Michigan,

Candidates on Iran

In response to Wolf Blitzer’s question about what happens if diplomacy fails in Iran, Clinton replied,”I’m not going to get into hypotheticals.”

Edwards on force against Iran: “No responsible president would take the option off the table.”

Biden: “We have to understand how weak [the Iranian] government is … at the end … I’d take [a nuclear weapon] out.”

National Intelligence Estimate - Clinton, Edwards, Obama

Clinton says she was thoroughly briefed on the National Intelligence Estimate and knew what everyone was saying: basically, she had researched the topic.  She says her vote was a sincere assessment of the current situation.

Edwards doesn’t regret reading the National Intelligence Estimate either.  Edwards offers up his familiar mea culpa,”I was wrong on the war”, emphasizing that it is a difference between him and Clinton.

Obama points out the benefits of reading the National Intelligence Estimate, saying Senator Bob Graham of Florida cited the study as a reason not to go to war.

Edwards, Obama, and Clinton

The first interplay of the debate among the top tier of Democratic candidates just occurred on the issue of Iraq.  Edwards criticized Obama and Clinton for not speaking out about the funding issue and not taking leadership.  In response, Obama offered a choice line, “You were about four and a half years late on this issue”.  Hillary chose to take an interesting approach, emphasizing differences between Democrats and Republicans, not among Democrats.  She said, “The differences between us are minor [on Iraq].”

More on Healthcare

“By mandating coverage for children, making health insurance affordable and enrollment easy, we expect to cover every American. Our plan has allocated enough subsidy dollars to accomplish this. If we find that after the plan is implemented all Americans are not covered, we will look to see who is not covered and why and take appropriate action to make sure we get to universal coverage. We have the resources set aside in the plan to do whatever turns out to be necessary to cover everyone.” - Dan Pfeiffer, Obama spokesman

In response to Obama’s plan, Mark Kornblau (Edwards spokesman) said the following: “John Edwards has a detailed plan to make health care coverage more affordable and truly universal. He believes that incremental measures are not enough. Any plan that does not cover all Americans is simply inadequate.”

Obama’s plan calls for universal access, but since it doesn’t mandate health insurance for adults, may not cover everyone.

Edwards and His Hedge-Fund Position

In an interview with the Associated Press, John Edwards said he worked for Fortress Investment Group, a hedge fund, to “learn more about financial markets and their relation to poverty”.

Compare that to the statement made by his spokesperson Kim Rubey when he signed up for the job: Edwards will be   “providing support in developing investment opportunities worldwide and strategic device on global economic issues”.  The BusinessWeek article stated Edwards would serve as a “part-time global dealmaker”.

Obama Beats Clinton - Latest Rasmussen Poll

In the latest Rasmussen poll, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 32%-30%, within the margin of error. John Edwards is a distant third with 17%. The recent South Carolina debate was held after the polling was conducted and the effects of it will be seen in the next round of polling.

However, Ben Smith of the Politico points out a potential caveat.  The Rasmussen report says “Obama has a nineteen-point lead among independents likely to vote in a Democratic primary.”  In many states (New Hampshire being a notable exception), only Democrats can vote in a Democratic party.

A clear generational gap among the candidates is present. Obama is capturing the younger vote, leading among voters 40 and younger. Clinton draws strength from the senior citizen class, winning amongst voters 65 and older.

However, Edwards performs the strongest in general election matchups, the only Democrat to lead all Republican candidates.