Fred Thompson’s Faulty Campaign Strategy

Fred Thompson’s entrance into the Republican race arrived amidst much fanfare from the conservative base dissatisfied with the three leading candidates at the time.  But since his delayed announcement, Thompson has failed to live up to the lofty expectations.  In Iowa, Thompson registers a paltry 4^th place, while in New Hampshire, Thompson’s at the back of the pack in 6^th place.  However, the campaign has made it no secret that the first test comes in South Carolina, where the Tennesse senator hopes to capitalize on his southern appeal.

Right now, Thompson is running a close third behind Romney and Giuliani in the Palmetto State and has begun running television advertisements.  But the way the nominating calendar has shaped up, focusing on a state that goes third is a losing strategy.

Let’s examine the likeliest scenarios for Iowa and New Hampshire.

1. Romney maintains his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and takes both states.  Buoyed by the two victories, he comes into South Carolina with momentum.  Giuliani doesn’t suffer too much because he’s been discounting the importance of the early contests (but still actively participating in them).  No chance for Thompson to increase his numbers, and Romney romps to victory.
2. Romney wins Iowa, but Giuliani manages to steal New Hampshire.  Giuliani benefits from a wave of positive press and enters South Carolina with momentum.  Giuliani goes up, and Romney may dip slightly after a loss in a heavily-invested state.  A small chance for Thompson to increase his numbers by chipping away at Romney supporters, but Giuliani’s gain is too large to overcome.  Either Giuliani or Romney takes the state. 
3. Huckabee triumphs in Iowa, and Giuliani benefits from Romney’s devastating loss to win in New Hampshire.  This is the most beneficial scenario to Thompson, as Romney’s candidacy would effectively be dead.  Still, Romney supporters would be split across various candidates – Huckabee, Thompson, Giuliani – and Giuliani benefits from the same momentum as in Scenario 2.  Bottom line: Thompson loses to Giuliani.

In all three scenarios, Thompson loses out to a candidate that benefited from momentum in the prior states. 

On the Democratic side in 2004, Wesley Clark skipped Iowa to focus on New Hampshire and present himself as the alternate to Dean.  However, Kerry and Edwards were the two big stories coming out of Iowa due to their one-two finish, getting momentum while Clark missed out on the chance to get a bump.  This time around, Thompson’s basically skipping the first two states, leaving significant opportunities for other candidates to break through.

Annotating Fred

Let’s take a look at some early quotes from Fred Thompson’s nascent candidacy.

Hannity: When you look at the other current crop of candidates, Republicans, where is the distinction between your positions and what you view as theirs?

Thompson: Well, to tell you the truth, I haven’t spent a whole lot of time going into the details of their positions.

Now I see why Thompson isn’t doing any debates until October, he’s simply not prepared. How does he expect to distinguish himself from his opponents? And here’s a candidate who was proposing Lincoln-Douglas type debates on one issue, yet rarely gets into specifics on the campaign trail.

King: But, at that moment in time, Senator, there was no global terrorism emanating from Iraq. So, even if you thought it was a good idea to get [bin Laden], there are those who say, get bin Laden first, kill al Qaeda first. Then get [Saddam].

Thompson: You are not served up these issues one at a time. They come when they come, and you have to — you have to deal with them. Some might say, stop efforts in other parts of the world and concentrate on Iraq. We don’t have that luxury. There is, you know, a debate still raging over the interconnectedness of it.

Any debate I know about the “interconnectedness” between 9/11 and Saddam was resolved a long time ago.

Thompson: I attend church when I’m in Tennessee. I’m in McLean right now. I don’t attend regularly when I’m up there.

Like there aren’t churches in McLean? And I thought Thompson was supposed to be filling the void for religious conservatives. A Quinnipiac poll (limited to Florida) says among white evangelical Christians, 64 percent are more likely to vote for a church-going candidate.

With Thompson’s less than satisfactory reception in Iowa, it’s a mixed start for the campaign.

Fred Thompson’s Running

Mike Allen of the Politico reports today Fred Thompson will jump into the Republican race on the Fourth of July weekend, with the announcement planned in Nashville. The news leaked when Thompson urged 100 potential donors over a conference call to raise $50,000 for the campaign. Members from the past three Republican administrations are expected to play roles in the campaign.

However, there are many barriers Thompson will have to overcome to wage a successful campaign. Already, the top tier of Republican candidates has built up strong organizations in early states and gathered endorsements. Thompson also has gained a reputation of disliking campaigning, and recently disclosed he has non-Hodgkin’s lymphona, a type of cancer. But, which Republican candidates are most hurt by Thompson’s entrance?

Mitt Romney: Romney has positioned himself as the true conservative candidate in the race, leading to rising poll numbers.  Thompson would likely court the same voting constituency as Romney and detract from his support. In fact, when Thompson was included in Republican polling, Romney’s numbers deteriorated significantly. Also, the last three competititive Iowa caucuses have indicated that the most socially conservative candidate captures a quarter of the vote. If Thompson and Romney were to divvy that portion among them, it would be detrimental to both of them. However, Romney has already built up a strong, impressive organization in Iowa, a consequence of Thompson’s late entry. Romney also has a tremendous financial advantage after his first quarter fundraising haul.

John McCain: The immediate threat Thompson poses to McCain relates to fundraising. McCain had a lackluster total in the first three months of the year and is fervently attempting to improve on that figure for the second quarter.  The buzz about Thompson’s candidacy is sure to attract significant dollars. In the long-term, the entrance of Thompson means votes are split among four main candidates: Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson.  McCain is the best-known of the candidates and likely has a committed base of voters. It is unlikely that base will defect to Thompson, but wavering Romney or Giuliani supporters may.

Rudy Giuliani: Thompson competes with Giuliani for star power and celebrity status, based on his acting career. Also, some Republican voters are concerned about electability more than orthodoxy, and thus support Giuliani. Thompson shares the voters’ conservative views and will portray himself as an appealing general election candidate, drawing voters from Giuliani. Thompson’s entrance may be beneficial to Giuliani’s candidacy. With four candidates battling in the early states, there may be no clear winner that emerges. Any momentum a candidate would hope to gain from winning an early state disappears, and Giuliani performs well on February 5.

Battle Between McCain and Romney

Continuing the feud that began in the last Republican debate, John McCain fiercely attacked Mitt Romney’s immigration stance in a blogger conference call today by saying “maybe I should wait a couple of weeks and see if it changes because it’s changed in less than a year from his position before”. He continued, “And maybe his solution will be to get out his small varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn.” “Guatemalans” referred to a story by the Boston Globe reporting Romney used illegal immigrants for landscaping.

Romney spokesman Kevin Madden responded, “Certain candidates who brokered this flawed plan are having a very difficult time grappling with or coming to terms with the political fallout that has ensued in a substantive manner”.

After drawing close to Rudy Giuliani in the markets last week, McCain has now plummeted and is behind Romney and Fred Thompson as well.  From Chris Cillizza, Thompson is increasingly more likely to make a run for the presidency having hired Tom Collamore as his “campaign manager in waiting”.

Roundup - Obama, Thompson, and More

The following exchange occurred between Barack Obama and David Gregory of MSNBC in an interview this morning.

Gregory: “Bill Clinton has been interviewed the last couple of days about his global warming initiative, and one of the things he said last night is that there really isn’t any difference between you and Senator Clinton in terms of your voting records on Iraq. Do you think that is about right?”

Obama: “Well, I suppose that’s true if you leave out the fact that she authorized it and supported it and I said it was a bad idea. You know, that’s a fairly major difference.”

The complete transcript of the interview can be found here. The two also talk about Secret Service protection, his children, and television shows.

Fred Thompson is not returning to Law and Order for the show’s 18th season, further fueling speculation of a presidential run.

Newt Gingrich said in a speech to a conservative think tank, “We have shrunk our political process to this pathetic dance in which people spend an entire year raising money in order to offer non-answers”. Gingrich stated he will not consider running until he has initiated a wave of reform and declared there was room in the race for him.

Paul Wolfowitz, president of the World Bank, is going to resign.

A major immigration plan with the input of Democratic and Republican senators and Cabinet secretaries has emerged.

Fred Thompson - Potential Run

Mike Allen of the Politico has reported that former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson “is on track to be ready to announce his candidacy in June or July”.   Thompson and advisers have been drawing up plans to run a campaign based on technology and his celebrity status.

Advisers say “Thompson … is researching ways to use technology — including the Web, videoconferences and teleconferences — to harness the enthusiasm for his candidacy among grass-roots bloggers and activists. The campaign also would rely on large events.”

A Thompson entrance would certainly shake up the Republican field.  Already, Thompson comes in third in most Republican primary polls, placing him ahead of Mitt Romney, who has spent over $10 million.  With his appeal to social conservatives and the apathy among Republican voters, Thompson has an entryway.  He is also well-known to fans of “Law and Order”, playing District Attorney Arthur Branch.

However, just as the top-tier Republican candidates have “evolved” on social issues, Thompson has as well.  In his 1994 Senate run, Thompson was described as a supporter of abortion rights, a label that has since then changed.  In an interview with Fox, Thompson called himself “pro-life” and criticized Roe v. Wade.

More on Fred Thompson

Over at Intrade.com, a prediction markets website, it’s interesting to note how the Republican field is shaping up. The betting gives Giuliani the highest chance of winning the nomination, 30%, but there is a surprising second-place finisher. Fred Thompson, who hasn’t even declared he’s running, although disclosing his cancer may indicate that he is mulling over a run, comes in second with a 20% chance of winning. Then, McCain is at 18.4% in third and Romney a close fourth at 17.5%.

Just to note, Intrade correctly predicted the winner in 49 out of the 50 states in the 2004 presidential election. That’s a pretty good track record.

On the Democratic side, Hillary is at nearly even odds, Obama’s at 30%, and no one else breaks ten percent. There are also overwhelming odds that the Democrats maintain control of the House and Senate after the 2008 congressional elections.