In 2004, John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich struck a deal before the Iowa caucuses to support each other should one of them fail to reach the 15% viability threshold in a given precinct. (Supporters of a candidate not reaching the 15% threshold are forced to disband and pick another candidate). The impact on the final outcome was likely slight, Kucinich registered at a paltry 3% in polling, but a similar pact could re-emerge this election cycle.
Bill Richardson is the candidate in a tier of his own, not in the top echelon but a cut above the rest of the pack. In Iowa, the New Mexico governor consistently polls in the double digits. Because of his level of support is high yet doesn’t break the 15% viability threshold, it’s crucial who his supporters have as a second choice.
So far, Richardson has cozied up to Clinton, his sycophancy shining through at the Democratic debates. In Philadelphia on October 30, Richardson decried negative campaigning, saying, “I’m hearing this holier-than-thou attitude toward Senator Clinton. It’s bothering me because it’s pretty close to personal attacks that we don’t need.” That and similar remarks led to a Saturday Night Live sketch lampooning Richardson for his toadying, ramping up the vice president speculation should Clinton win the nomination.
Iowa is a three way horse race, with no candidate able to boast a clear lead going into the final month of campaigning. The conventional wisdom declares that if Hillary wins the state, it will be nearly impossible to prevent her from getting the nomination. So, take the following hypothetical: Richardson, hoping to put Clinton over the edge and thus maximizing his chances for the veep slot, offers up a quasi-endorsement of the New York senator. If his support doesn’t surpass the 15% barrier, Richardson tells his supporters to throw their weight behind Clinton. In a tight race, the additional backing may compose Clinton’s margin of victory.
Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Biden are all officially off the ballot in Michigan’s January 15 primary, sticking to the first four states sanctioned by the DNC. Hillary’s campaign hasn’t released a statement yet.
The move by the Democrats is politically sound, at least for the primary election. Hillary was leading by double digits in polling, and the candidates signed a pledge not to compete in states breaking DNC rules (namely Michigan and Florida). With no campaigning, it would be nearly impossible for someone to beat Hillary. Withdrawing from the contest lessens the significance of any results out of the Wolverine State.
Concerning the consequences for the general election, it is unclear whether this move will dissuade Michigan voters from voting Democratic. Kerry carried the state’s 17 electoral votes by 3 percent in 2004.
UPDATE: Hillary’s remaining on the ballot, her communications director Howard Wolfson saying, “We will honor the pledge and not campaign or spend money in any state that is not in compliance with the DNC calendar, but it is not necessary to take the steps necessary to remove Senator Clinton’s name from the ballot”. Dodd is also staying in the race in Michigan,
To inform voters about Bill Richardson’s extensive resume, his campaign is hitting the air in early states with a new ad. The ads are like a job interview with Richardson acting as the interviewee. The first ad goes through Richardson’s past positions: 14 years in Congress, energy secretary, U.N. ambassador, governor of New Mexico, and diplomat. In the second ad, Richardson discusses his accomplishments such as balancing New Mexico’s budget.
Richardson is one of three extremely well-qualified candidates sitting in the second tier for the Democratic nomination. Richardson, Chris Dodd, and Joe Biden, all have vast experience but have been overshadowed by the top three. By capitalizing on Richardson’s experience, his accomplishments, and sense of humor, the campaign wishes to convert voters. Tell us what you think, you can watch the hilarious ads below.
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Posted by Arjun
